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It turns out trade wars are not so easy to win. The Trump administration has had no real success with China, Canada and Mexico, and is in no

A lack of certainty makes life more complex for most people. Unfortunately, uncertainty is to be found everywhere one looks at present.

We have previously highlighted the difficulty of running economic forecasting models that cannot absorb the wild deviations caused by geo-po

The reality of the Trump administration’s concerted attack on trade and its linkage of trade to the U.S. deficit is finally beginning to impact trading relations. We must be realistic and accept that Trump believes trade to be a bad thing when he expounds on “America First.” This is an isolationist, inward looking strategy that was made clear by his speech at the U.N. General Assembly where he announced that the United States is not in favor of globalization. The third round

The back-and-forth incremental increases in US import tariffs and retaliations against US exports continued through July and into August. Despite the stay in new US – European tariffs, the US has continued to expand the overall scope of import impediments, especially focused on China. The earlier tariffs on $34 billion in US imports from China took effect July 6th. Additional US tariffs threatened against China are now up to the $500 billion level. China’s retaliation again

The risk of new US trade policy having rapid impacts on US container trade volumes this year seems to have dissipated some in April. The Trump Administration has adjusted their initial trade restriction announcements made earlier this year with exceptions and delays. They are also engaging in talks with trade partner countries, including Canada, Mexico and China. The steel and aluminum tariffs were imposed in March but on a reduced set of countries, and with an exemption pro

There is nothing good about a trade war. It is a vicious circle of retaliation where there are no winners, only losers. President Trump has managed to start such a war and as a result is knocking trillions of dollars in value off the stock markets and will potentially cause a decline in consumer confidence. China recently announced plans to impose 25 percent tariffs on a large range of U.S. goods. The list includes soybeans, cars and aircraft – three key export areas – along

The first victims of the Administration’s trade war will be ocean carriers, ports, terminals, truckers, and railroads. There are seldom any winners in a trade war – although both sides will claim victory in the end – but there will surely be a loss of trade and damage to the shipping industry. The announced U.S. tariffs on steel and aluminum will hurt break bulk carriers and ports as well as the container trades. China’s announcement of retaliatory tariffs on fruit, dried fru

Do the new US steel and aluminum import tariffs threaten the baseline forecasts of US import container volumes this year? That question is on the minds of shippers rightly fearing the effects of the new tariffs. The answer can’t be known given the path of retaliation and subsequent US response back-and-forth is not clear. While there are characteristics of the way these new tariffs are being justified and applied that are very unusual, the likely responses by trade partners c

Fixation on the negative balance of payments in trade has created a clear and present threat to global trade. What started out as an announcement of tariffs on steel and aluminum by President Trump is rapidly turning into a potential trade war. The unnerving thing about this is the false premise on which the tariffs are based. China is being blamed for flooding the market with cheap steel due to its excessive production, yet the two largest exporters to the United States are