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A Brief Outlook for 2020

According to the Federal Reserve, the Industrial Production Index has been on a slight decline since January 2018 with only a couple of upticks in August and November of last year. Meanwhile, the Census Bureau’s Total Business Inventory-to-Sales Ratio, which was in decline through April 2018, began to rise relatively sharply throughout the rest of that year. It leveled off at a high of 1.4 in May of last year and has remained there since. This combination of reduced output counterbalanced by increased inventory underlies the uncertainties of the tariff wars for imports and exports. It is not surprising that even the Federal Reserve suggests that the impact of the trade war has a negative imp


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