There are some potential lessons to be learned for container trades from the new US Mexico Canada Agreement (USMCA.) This is the replacement for the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) that has governed North American trade between Canada, Mexico and the United States since 1994. The new North American trade deal was agreed to by the three countries at the end of September. This was the result of last-minute concessions made over the course of just a few days on the p

The back-and-forth incremental increases in US import tariffs and retaliations against US exports continued through July and into August. Despite the stay in new US – European tariffs, the US has continued to expand the overall scope of import impediments, especially focused on China. The earlier tariffs on $34 billion in US imports from China took effect July 6th. Additional US tariffs threatened against China are now up to the $500 billion level. China’s retaliation again

The risk of new US trade policy having rapid impacts on US container trade volumes this year seems to have dissipated some in April. The Trump Administration has adjusted their initial trade restriction announcements made earlier this year with exceptions and delays. They are also engaging in talks with trade partner countries, including Canada, Mexico and China. The steel and aluminum tariffs were imposed in March but on a reduced set of countries, and with an exemption pro

Do the new US steel and aluminum import tariffs threaten the baseline forecasts of US import container volumes this year? That question is on the minds of shippers rightly fearing the effects of the new tariffs. The answer can’t be known given the path of retaliation and subsequent US response back-and-forth is not clear. While there are characteristics of the way these new tariffs are being justified and applied that are very unusual, the likely responses by trade partners c

As the U.S. shifts its international trade policy preferences towards bilateral agreements and away from multi-lateral agreements, there are consequences for U.S. container trades. U.S. trade partner countries aren’t passive when it comes to trade policy themselves and they dislike new bilateral trade deals replacing prior multinational agreements. Overseas businesses also react to perceptions of increased risks to U.S. trade by looking more to other trade partners. These fa

The risk of near-term trade disruptions from U.S. trade policy changes has fallen this summer. After 200 days in office, the Trump Administration has not yet followed through on much of their most significant trade policy proposals from the 2016 campaign. The initial quick withdrawal from the TransPacific Partnership and threats to NAFTA, have not seen equivalent follow up from the Administration or in Congress. Targeted attention-grabbing trade moves, such as duties on Canad