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March 10, 2019

It turns out trade wars are not so easy to win. The Trump administration has had no real success with China, Canada and Mexico, and is in no real position to dictate to the European Union.

February 10, 2019

We have previously highlighted the difficulty of running economic forecasting models that cannot absorb the wild deviations caused by geo-political events. The impact of an administration caught up in trade disputes, border walls and government shutdowns in the United...

January 10, 2019

We have entered 2019 with some good economic indicators: jobs, wages, gross domestic product and retail sales all saw strong growth during 2018. The stock market has defied all rationale behavior in recent weeks, dropping dramatically, then regrouping and then dropping...

December 8, 2018

Trying to forecast in an environment that resembles a yo-yo in terms of economic data and policy is becoming an extreme challenge. What are the fundamental drivers pushing the economic growth and sales? We are seeing that the traditional methodology of forecasting is b...

September 12, 2018

The container shipping industry lives somewhere in the tri-state area of Chaos, Flux, and Transition. While everyone would rather live somewhere in Stability, there seems to be no consensus on where it is or how to get there.

For the carriers, Stability means profitable...

September 10, 2018

What a change eight months can make. At the beginning of the year, carriers and big consulting houses projected a bumper year all round for the ocean cargo business. Global Port Tracker suggested that growth in import demand in 2018 was going to be half that of 2017. A...

August 9, 2018

The back-and-forth incremental increases in US import tariffs and retaliations against US exports continued through July and into August.  Despite the stay in new US – European tariffs, the US has continued to expand the overall scope of import impediments, especially...

May 8, 2018

The risk of new US trade policy having rapid impacts on US container trade volumes this year seems to have dissipated some in April. The Trump Administration has adjusted their initial trade restriction announcements made earlier this year with exceptions and delays. T...

April 6, 2018


There is nothing good about a trade war. It is a vicious circle of retaliation where there are no winners, only losers. President Trump has managed to start such a war and as a result is knocking trillions of dollars in value off the stock markets and will potentially...

April 6, 2018

The first victims of the Administration’s trade war will be ocean carriers, ports, terminals, truckers, and railroads. There are seldom any winners in a trade war – although both sides will claim victory in the end – but there will surely be a loss of trade and damage...

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