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May 10, 2019

Real gross domestic product in the United States increased 3.2 percent in the first quarter of 2019, according to the federal Bureau of Economic Analysis, and was driven by consumption and fixed non-residential investments. As imports declined due to the large inventor...

March 10, 2019

It turns out trade wars are not so easy to win. The Trump administration has had no real success with China, Canada and Mexico, and is in no real position to dictate to the European Union.

February 10, 2019

We have previously highlighted the difficulty of running economic forecasting models that cannot absorb the wild deviations caused by geo-political events. The impact of an administration caught up in trade disputes, border walls and government shutdowns in the United...

January 10, 2019

There are far too many surprises in container shipping. The last quarter of 2018 was huge. Pre-tariff inventory buildup has stressed carriers, ports, truckers, chassis pools, and DC operators. We’ve seen a stream of “extra loaders”, vessels inserted into a rotation to...

January 10, 2019

We have entered 2019 with some good economic indicators: jobs, wages, gross domestic product and retail sales all saw strong growth during 2018. The stock market has defied all rationale behavior in recent weeks, dropping dramatically, then regrouping and then dropping...

October 8, 2018

The reality of the Trump administration’s concerted attack on trade and its linkage of trade to the U.S. deficit is finally beginning to impact trading relations. We must be realistic and accept that Trump believes trade to be a bad thing when he expounds on “America F...

September 12, 2018

The container shipping industry lives somewhere in the tri-state area of Chaos, Flux, and Transition. While everyone would rather live somewhere in Stability, there seems to be no consensus on where it is or how to get there.

For the carriers, Stability means profitable...

September 10, 2018

What a change eight months can make. At the beginning of the year, carriers and big consulting houses projected a bumper year all round for the ocean cargo business. Global Port Tracker suggested that growth in import demand in 2018 was going to be half that of 2017. A...

April 6, 2018

There is nothing good about a trade war. It is a vicious circle of retaliation where there are no winners, only losers. President Trump has managed to start such a war and as a result is knocking trillions of dollars in value off the stock markets and will potentially...

March 9, 2018

Do the new US steel and aluminum import tariffs threaten the baseline forecasts of US import container volumes this year? That question is on the minds of shippers rightly fearing the effects of the new tariffs. The answer can’t be known given the path of retaliation a...

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