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May 10, 2019

Real gross domestic product in the United States increased 3.2 percent in the first quarter of 2019, according to the federal Bureau of Economic Analysis, and was driven by consumption and fixed non-residential investments. As imports declined due to the large inventor...

April 10, 2019

The world economy, and thereby trade, is heading for a squall.

February 25, 2019

A lack of certainty makes life more complex for most people. Unfortunately, uncertainty is to be found everywhere one looks at present.

February 10, 2019

We have previously highlighted the difficulty of running economic forecasting models that cannot absorb the wild deviations caused by geo-political events. The impact of an administration caught up in trade disputes, border walls and government shutdowns in the United...

December 8, 2018

Trying to forecast in an environment that resembles a yo-yo in terms of economic data and policy is becoming an extreme challenge. What are the fundamental drivers pushing the economic growth and sales? We are seeing that the traditional methodology of forecasting is b...

November 9, 2018

It seems that traditional economic fundamentals do not have the same impact on trade that they used to have. We are now in a politically motivated trade environment, and politics is another matter altogether.

President Trump’s trade war with China and the threat of even...

October 8, 2018

The reality of the Trump administration’s concerted attack on trade and its linkage of trade to the U.S. deficit is finally beginning to impact trading relations. We must be realistic and accept that Trump believes trade to be a bad thing when he expounds on “America F...

September 10, 2018

What a change eight months can make. At the beginning of the year, carriers and big consulting houses projected a bumper year all round for the ocean cargo business. Global Port Tracker suggested that growth in import demand in 2018 was going to be half that of 2017. A...

January 31, 2018

Our models suggest that North Europe will have had an annual growth rate of nearly two per cent for imports while exports grow nearly seven per cent in 2017, with most of the growth in the first half of the year.  They also suggest that the first half of 2018 will grow...

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